DTN Midday Grain Comments     12/13 12:19

   Soybeans Up While Corn and Wheat Is Flat at Midday

   Corn is flat to 1 cent higher, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher and wheat is 
mixed.  

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   

   

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow up 150. The dollar index is 30 
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up 
$0.60 higher. Livestock trade is broadly higher. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold up $8.30.

   CORN

   Corn trade is flat to 1 cent higher at midday with support tied to the first 
phase of the China trade deal being approved, although details remain murky and 
we have pulled back from the overnight highs. Ethanol margins have narrowed, 
but futures have firmed along with the corn since midweek. Open weather should 
allow for more clean-up harvest, potentially. Basis has held up well with some 
strength showing up at processors again, but firmer futures will likely limit 
further gains. On the March contract, support is the 20-day at $3.78 and 
holding at midday, with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.73 below that and 
resistance the upper Bollinger band at $3.83, which we tested overnight.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade gapping higher on 
the trade news, but unable to hold the 15- to 16-cent higher trade we saw 
overnight with hard details likely needed to sustain buying. Meal is $1.00 to 
$2.00 higher and oil is 0.25 cent to 0.35 cent higher. The real remains cheap 
versus the dollar but is back at the high end of the recent range with 
Brazilian weather still in good shape and Argentina more mixed short term. Bean 
basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term. January chart support is 
the lower Bollinger band at $8.66, which we are finally pulling away from, with 
trade the 20-day at $8.93, with the upper Bollinger band at 9.20 serving as 
resistance.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is flat to 4 cents lower. Trade is fading along with the row 
crops while KC scored a new high for the move before pulling back. The 
Chicago/KC March spread is back to 86 cents narrowing from the high with 
Chicago gaining a little at midday. Chicago is also holding a 5-cent premium to 
Minneapolis, which has widened Thursdsay after sharply contracting. The dollar 
remains rangebound. Export business remains quiet with Russian values rising 
again and some midweek tenders. The forecast has some moisture for Kansas along 
with warmer temps. The March KC chart support is the 20-day at 4.34, which we 
jumped above yesterday, with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $4.48, 
which we tested before fading.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(AG)

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